(en) Dr. Sergey Biryukov

Rusins, protecting their rights to identity and political choice, face a problem, general for many people today. It is necessary to recognize, that problems of national consciousness traditionally are considered sharp and provoke many political conflicts and crises. And actual situation in Moldova confirms the split in the direction of the “sovereignty preservation" and the "progressing absorption of Romania".
Latest events in Moldova have drawn a wide response in public opinion and political community of the country, and also in political circles of all the country. The referendum on definition of the form of presidential elections in Moldova which took place two weeks ago, is recognised cancelled, affirms the chairman of the Central Electoral Committee of Moldova Evgeniy Shtirbu.

30, 98 % of voters have taken part in a referendum when the voter-turnout is 33, 33 %. Thus, the result of voting is considered negative and the the 78th article of the Moldova Constitution where the presidential election by parliament is stays valid.
However, despite the fiasco, it is already clear that 87, 16 % of electors would like to have a vote in electing the President. Thus, Moldova has reached a paradoxical political result: despite the opinion of the majority of active voters of country, the former unstable political model of parliamentary republic generating crises has been kept. On the other hand, the initiative of the Romania-oriented Moldavian politicians has not received support. Also the president of the republic Mihai Ghimpu, the prime minister Vlad Filat and the mayor of Kishinev Dorin Kirtoake (Ghimpu’s nephew that obviously don’t do much credit to the adherent of liberal and European values) keep former positions. Moreover, all the parties of the “Alliance for the European democracy» have not officially accepted their defeat.
Moldavian communists have a reason to celebrate the defeat of their adversaries from the “Alliance for the European democracy». «Their actions have led to the full bankruptcy of these unfortunate politicians, - declared the leader of Communist Party of Moldova ex-president Vladimir Voronin. - Voters turned out wiser. They have not come to ballot-boxes, having expressed their attitude to this power. We hope that soon it will come to its senses and will follow the law. And as the law sets down it is necessary to dismiss the parliament and to go to the polls ».
However it is not so simple, as it seems at first sight. Leaders of the ruling coalition do not hasten to dismiss the parliament and to call an election, which is specified in the by the Constitution, but try to extend the term of the coalition government till 2013 using the referendum.
It is necessary to remind that before the referendum there was a situation of strain. The Communist Party of Moldova, led by Vladimir Voronin that lost its power last year called to ignore this referendum. Let's remind also that last year the parliament tried twice to elect the new head of the state, but both attempts have failed. In addition to the expected parliamentary elections, in the near future the presidential elections will also take place in the country. They will either aggravate or resolve political crisis in the country begun with parliamentary elections in April 2009. Considering actual rupture between the Romania-oriented politicians and Moldavian patriots, Moldova will choose its future – the substantive existence or progressive integration into Romania.
As a result, the political crisis in Moldova has only aggravated and now threatens to become permanent. It is possible to expect a new coil of crisis, which can aggravate a situation. Therefore now nobody will tell, when following election will take place and what will be the result. It’s not clear, how long the ruling Alliance for European Integration will keep its positions. How good are the prospects of some parties in the future parliament? Whether communists take at preservation of old strategy revenge? How to evaluate the referendum which has just taken place? But one thing is clear: the course of the pro-Romanian forces of Mihai Ghimpu mean the end of statehood and the sovereignty of Moldova, which does not meet with the support of the majority of the Moldavian citizens.
The pro-Romanian segment of the Moldavian elite after taking power has not achieved success in economy and worsened relations with Russia. Meanwhile they are not capable to realise the project of abolition of the Moldavian statehood. However, it isn’t worth overestimate Ghimpu’s and his pro-Romanian coalition independence in political sphere. All their aspirations are bound by realization of wide-scale political project of the creation of «Great Romania», which has got much active support in today's Bucharest.
The intention of this project is to join the modern Romanian state with territories of some states such as Moldova, Bukovina (Chernovitsy region of Ukraine), the south of Odessa region, and also territories of the Black Sea Coast. Obviously, similar aspirations don’t only destroy the sovereignty of Moldova and the Ukraine, but pose the question about the European Security Architecture fixed by Helsinki Agreements 1975. All this threatens of renewal of a number of territorial conflicts and pretensions in Eastern Europe. The party «Great Romania» is not formally in power in Bucharest, but incumbent president Trojan Besesku supports actively the idea of reintegration of Moldova and its boundary expansion to the Ukraine. For this purpose Bucharest uses financial help of the EU which would be more efficient to direct it for resolving relevant economic problems of Romania.
At the same time the referendum that has not taken place in Moldova and also Scandal burst in March and April of this year because of the arrest of Ilya Kozak and Ernest Vardanyan - two agents of Information and Security Service of the Republic of Moldova has postponed possible settlement of Transnistrian conflict for even a more distant term.
E.Vardanyan and I.Kazak in their speeches in media (see http://dniester.ru, http://newspmr.com), have told in details about when and how they have been recruited in Kishinev, about what they have had to do exactly and about psychological pressure they have suffered from. The names of officers from central administrative board of external investigation and protection of constitutional system of the ISS of Moldova (Ion Lyakhu, Nikolaj Botezatu, Radu Chumachenko and Gennadij Naku) were also opened up to the public. Dirty methods of the special service’ work were revealed in dry phrases of former agents of ISS. Probably, E.Vardanjan and I.Kazak are not the unique characters in a modern history of the Moldavian special services who has not only come in their view have, but who’s also become prisoners of the situation. They’ve noticed that they have had to palter with truth for many years, and even the accomplishment of petty errands of ISS was a drudgery. This arrest shows all irresponsibility and negligence of the ISS of Moldova that has not even found time to instruct all the agents how to act in such situations.
Also the abortive referendum has postponed the possible regulation of conflict in the Transnistrian region. While Ghimpu continues in power it will not be possible to agree on this question. It is possible to rely solely on the evolutionary change of the political situation in Moldova in context of the last referendum. Today it’s obvious that citizens of Moldova have got tired of chaos and paralysis of the power for last years. The active course on sovereignty abolition causes resistance of the considerable part of the Moldavian elite, that does not wish to lose the state, and this fact threatens by large-scale internal political disruption. The housing and public utilities fee have already increased fabulously which was accompanied by repeal of social benefits, in particular, cancellation of free fare for pensioners in urban transport of the capital. However the young generation of the country also suffers from the crisis. Moldavian sociologist Natalia Vladichesku remarked in the interview to the Belgian «Le soir», that young Moldavians do not see any alternative of a current situation. They have no possibility to plan their future. Any who tries to start business faces the huge risk. There is not any visible sign of a real improvement of the situation. Since next year, gas will go up in price for Moldova, and tariffs will increase by 50 %. If the ruling country leaders will not manage to obtain promised credits and to direct them to the social sphere, crisis may become the most important propagandist for opposition to nowadays Pro-Romanian leading forces.
Therefore it is possible to assume with good reason that sooner or later Moldova will return to direct presidential elections. As the Moldavian expert Vladimir Bukarsky said, at least in the second round, the Moldavian patriots will win the direct election. Most probably it will be centrist Marian Lupu. However it can be Vladimir Voronin too, if it will be allowed to him to ballot and to express such a desire. The probable candidate from the Communist Party is Andrey Negutsa, the ambassador of Moldova in Russia. Some experts take into consideration the former president Piotr Luchinsky too. His name emerged in 2009 when the idea of the neutral president was put forward.
At the same time the candidate from the Pro-Romanian forces - most likely it will be the working prime minister Vlad Filat - will lose the vote. Its electorate consists of 30-40 % of those, who share the Romanian vector of development of Moldova. Today these people are in the minority in the Moldavian society. Therefore it is possible to expect that a statist who supports multivectoral international policy will be elected as President. Such choice may strengthen the Moldavian statehood.
However it is impossible to solve the vital question on strengthening the Moldavian statehood without resolving Transnistrian problem and finding well-balanced model of international politics of Moldova. Pro-Romanian politicians who have definitely established Romanian identity for all the Moldavians and stake on the assimilation with neighboring state, inevitably provoke a serous split in the Moldavian society. They doom not only Russian and Ukrainian minorities to hard assimilation, but also the considerable part of Moldovians who does not bind themselves with the “pro-Romanian vector” of politics.
In view of complexity of an issue of the Moldavian people identification (the latter has got centuries-old relationships with Russia and Ukraine and with kindred peoples of Romania), it is necessary to be careful and delicate discussing this question.
At first, the correct and balanced judged definition should be given of the Moldavian people after having found out, whether it concerns the ethnic Moldavians or only all people having the Moldavian citizenship. Probably, it is not necessary to divide citizens into Russian-speaking and others in the interests of durability and well-being of the Moldavian state itself, but to allow each person to speak and teach the children a native language, to take a balanced approach to the foreign policy of the country.
Meanwhile numerous facts point at large scale subversive activities of Information and Security Service of the Republic of Moldova agaist not only but against the Ukraine, Russia, Romania… As it cleared up the Security Service mentees received their tasks to spy those who “feed” and “warm” them too – their western diplomatic missions! And even when E. Vardanyan got in UN Secretariat to work ISS N. Botezatu demanded him to spy for them ther too! Inspite anecdotes about Moldavians ISS represents really a powerful force structure and due to the pshycological constitution of the ethnosis (it’s not a secret that the cruelest maphia in Portugal consisted of Moldavians and have terrorized portugal citizens for a long time) uses incorrect methods in its work and has a certain influence over authorities.
Discussion about what has happened clears up the connection of Information and Security Service of the Republic of Moldova with western non-governemental organisations which are used by the Moldavian Secirity Service in its work to gather the information about western countries – their partners! As a result - vicious circle when Europe itself and its democratic values comes off a loser. It’s high time for Europe to undestand that it is involved in a double-game. It should not be accepted like that. Those Moldavians who try to defy not only human values but, to say so, who behaves incorrectly with the partners must be asked a lot of questions.
Unfortunately, representatives of ruling pro-Romanian alliance do not consider properly these policy aspects which can generate numerous slits and conflicts in society. Political line of the incumbent President of Moldova Mihai Ghimpu, one of founders of the Popular front of Moldova (NFM) and Liberal party of Moldova (PLM), the leader of «Alliance for the European integration» (АЕI) is the perfect example. On September, 11 2009 Mihai Ghimpu became an Acting President of Moldova after a former president Vladimir Voronin has sent in resignation.
Implementing of presidential powers by the oppositional politician was very demonstrative at first. On September, 17 Ghimpu has issued the edict to cancel the visa regime with Romania established by former president Vladimir Voronin. In turn, Ghimpu has demanded an unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistrian region. Ghimpu has declared immediately and unequivocally the Romanian vector of his politics. In the interview to the «Commersant» Ghimpu has declared: «Romania is not simply our neighbour. We are one people, but we live in two states».
Russian journalists, asked him whether he was a pro-Romanian politician; Ghimpu has categorically declared: «Bosh! I cannot be a pro-Romanian politician because I am Romanian. Why could Russian princedoms be united in one state but why there should be two Moldavian states? There is one people that speaks one language. The problem consists only in the army which has come to this territory in 1940 ». Thus, the general history of Moldova and Russia with the events of 1812 and 1945, does not exist de facto for Ghimpu.
The president of Moldova following declared ideological credo for a long time, has refused to participate in Victory Parade in Moscow on May, 9 2010; he motivated his actions by the fact that losers (is that Romanians?) had nothing to do there. Ghimpu has explained: «It does not mean that we do not acknowledge the victory of the Soviet army over fascism. Nobody poses this victory into question. Everybody is happy that the regime has fallen. But after one regime had ended another one came and brought a communistic regime with it, and organized hunger and mass deportations by force of the same Soviet army as well. There are veterans in Moldova too. I will be in Kishinev together with veterans. It is not important whether they served in Soviet or in Romanian army. In Moldova there are citizens who were at war in both armies. It even happened, that one brother fought in a one army, and the second one - in another. We have come to a decision to present service medals to warriors from both armies. After all they have arrived at Berlin together because the Romanian army has gone over to the side of the Soviet Union in the end of war. These are details that the Russian government should understand». However Ghimpu is like some post-Soviet politicians, wishing to get the political capital on history falsification.
Moreover, on June, 24th 2010 Mihai Ghimpu has countersigned the edict where the 28th June 1940 was declared the Memorial Day of victims of Soviet occupation and totalitarian communistic regime, with annually mourning and dipping national flags of Moldova and rearing a monument to the victims of Soviet occupation in the central square of a city. Also the text of the edict says that Russia as a successor of the USSR should immediately withdraw troops and arms located in territory of self-proclaimed Transnistrian Moldavian Republic. The edict caused ambiguous reactions amongst Moldova’s population and politicians. As a result the Constitutional court of Moldova has recognized the edict illegal and has revoked the decision, having demonstrated limits of possibilities of the pro-Romanian politicians. This kind of Mihai Gimpu’s orthodoxy has been shown in the handling of the Transnistrian problem. Answering the question of the best ways of resolving of this problem, he spoke about romano-moldavian relationships and a situation around Transnistrian region: «This is our business. It is not necessary to make us choose between federation and confederation. This is not a national question, but political one. How there can be a federation between two brothers? What are you speaking about? Transnistrian region is a moldavian territory. Оur citizens live here, and we must resolve this problem».
This position obviously brings to a dead-lock the process of Transnistrian region regulation. Mr. Ghimpu actually rejects all compromise settlement providing preservation of Transnistrian region as a part of united Moldova. And one of the main reasons of such a predictable political deadlock is ethnocratical ideology to which he is ready to sacrifice the main political result of last decades - the independent Moldavian state. Ghimpu’s aspiration is to declare all Moldavians as Romanians, without taking into consideration their opinions. This question of whether Moldavians and Romanians are one people or related ethnos is rather complex, and finding the answer should be left to historians and public opinion. Meanwhile, Ghimpu’s predecessors at a post of the Moldova’s president Mircha Snegur, Piotr Luchinsky and Vladimir Voronin have never told that Moldavians are Romanians. Many representatives of the Moldavian elite believe that Romania is a state with its own history and political traditions. At the same time Moldova has complicated relations with Russia, not only because of drama events, but also of three centuries general history. The committed and one-sided view of the president of Moldova can provoke the rupture of relations between the Moldavian elite and a society, having faced problems which have not any simple ideological resolution.
Modern Georgia demonstrates another example of absence of flexibility in the sphere of an ethnic question. The absence of flexibility and the persistent aspiration to build the ethnocratical state have provoked a bloody civil war in 1992-1993, have led to pull down of Zviad Gamsahurdia’s regime and now is threatening to a young Georgian statehood. The absence of respect to minorities, the refusal to recognize their political equality have provoked the war against Russia in 2008 and have turned heavy losses for Georgia
The Ukraine has turned away from ideologically predetermined policy recently. This policy combined with weakness of the state and governmental inefficiency has lead to a deep socio-economic crisis. Actual and pragmatically disposed authorities of the country aspire to find a way out of this situation.